Iran Conflict May 2026 Update — Where Are New Zealand Diesel Prices Now?

Three Months On — Taking Stock

In February and March 2026, EEK Mechanical published two articles covering the impact of the Iran conflict on New Zealand fuel prices and misfuel recovery costs. As we enter May 2026, it is worth taking a clear-eyed look at where things actually stand — because the picture is more mixed than either the optimists or the pessimists predicted.

The Strait of Hormuz — Has It Eased?

Partially. The most acute phase of the conflict — which saw tanker traffic through the Strait drop to around 60% of its pre-conflict volume in late January and February — has moderated. By late April, independent shipping monitors were reporting tanker transits returning to approximately 80% of normal levels, and the insurance surcharges applied to Hormuz-route voyages have reduced from their February peaks, though they remain elevated relative to 2025 norms.

The situation remains volatile. Any renewed escalation could quickly restore the disruptions seen earlier in the year. The fundamental risk has not resolved — it has stabilised at a lower level.

New Zealand Diesel Prices in May 2026

Pump diesel prices in New Zealand reached their peak in late February 2026 and have since retreated modestly. As of early May 2026, 91 diesel is averaging approximately 15–18 cents per litre below the February peak at major urban forecourts. However, prices remain significantly above the five-year average — the partial Hormuz recovery has not unwound the full price increase from the conflict's onset.

Rural diesel prices, which reflect additional freight legs from urban distribution hubs, remain closer to their February peaks. Farmers and rural operators in particular are continuing to see high fuel input costs.

Freight Surcharges — Are They Coming Down?

Freight surcharges from major carriers have reduced from their February 2026 highs, but have not been fully lifted. As of May 2026:

• Maersk and MSC have reduced war risk surcharges from their peak levels but maintain a partial surcharge on Middle East-routed cargo
• Air freight rates have eased as Emirates and other carriers have resumed fuller routing through previously avoided airspace
• Some automotive parts importers are reporting improved lead times, though parts sourced via Middle East transit routes still show longer-than-normal delivery windows

What This Means for EEK Mechanical Pricing

EEK Mechanical's April 2026 rate card update reflected input costs at their peak. We have committed to reviewing rates when conditions stabilise. As of May 2026, while some relief is evident, input costs have not returned to pre-conflict levels sufficiently to warrant a rate reduction. We will update customers as soon as that position changes.

Our rate card remains publicly available at eek.nz/rate-card. We maintain full pricing transparency and will publish any changes with clear effective dates and a full explanation of the factors driving them.

Looking Ahead

The most likely scenario for the remainder of 2026 is a gradual, uneven normalisation — with some surcharges lifting, freight routes fully restoring, and diesel prices drifting lower, but none of it happening quickly or in a straight line. New Zealand businesses operating in global supply chains should plan for continued above-average input costs through at least Q3 2026.